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April 2, 2023

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Chicago mayoral candidates Brandon Johnson (left) and Paul Vallas (right) shake hands before a mayoral debate at WLS-TV ABC Channel 7’s studio on Thursday. Tyler Pasciak LaRiviere/Sun-Times

In the last official independent poll of the Chicago Mayoral run-off election, former Chicago School CEO Paul Vallas saw his lead over Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson widen from two points to two four points (49.6%-45.4%) from the previous poll conducted March 20-22. The percentage of respondents who said they are still undecided in the race shrank almost in half from 9.6% to 5%.

According to the poll, Vallas is nearing a majority. Vallas increased his percentage among respondents who self-identified as “moderate” to a nearly forty point margin (67.5%-28.4%). Johnson holds an even bigger margin among self-identified “progressives” (70.8%-22.5%). A definite gender gap has emerged in the race, according to the poll. Johnson leads slightly among female voters (49.3%-46.8%).

The results are part of the latest Illinois Poll, conducted March 31-April 2. It is a semi-monthly survey conducted since 2001 by Victory Research, an independent polling company based in Chicago. The poll of 900 likely Chicago run-off voters has a margin of error of 3.27% and was conducted by live callers. Respondents answered using land lines (221) and cell phones (629). Victory Research has no polling client in the Mayor’s race. @ILpollster. Victory Research has no polling client in the Mayor’s race.

Geographically, Vallas continues to hold a big lead over Johnson in the areas he won on February 28th. On the Northwest Side of the city, Vallas leads Johnson by a margin of (71.0%-25.0%). On the Southwest Side, Vallas holds a more than two-to-one lead (68.6%-26.3%). The Johnson campaign counters by holding a wide lead on both the South Side of the city (75.6%-18.7%), and the West Side (78.2%-19.5%). Vallas leads among White voters (76.9-17.7%), while Johnson leads among Black voters (78.2-18.8%), according to the poll.

Vallas has opened up a lead among Hispanic voters (50.6%-42.2%) and among North Lakefront voters (50.8%-41.7%), according to the poll. Neither candidate had a majority among those demographics in previous polls.

In a sign perhaps that the winner may not be known on election night, Johnson leads among those who have voted early, either in person or by mail in ballots (51.9%-47.8%).


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