PAUL VALLAS HOLDS SLIGHT LEAD IN THE CHICAGO MAYOR RACE FIVE WEEKS FROM THE ELECTION
Top Four Candidates Within Margin of Error
January 26th, 2023 For more information
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As the election for Chicago Mayor nears the final month, former Chicago School CEO Paul Vallas holds a very slight lead over Mayor Lori Lightfoot, according to the latest Illinois Poll.
According to the poll, the top four candidates are within the margin of error for the lead. Vallas leads the pack at 19.5%, with Lightfoot at 19.2%. Congressman Jesus “Chuy” Garcia is in third place with 16.6% and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson in fourth place at 15.5%. Businessman Willie Wilson is the only other candidate in double digits with 11.7%. 12.2% of voters are still undecided, according to the poll.
The results are part of the latest Illinois Poll, conducted January 23rd-25th. It is a semi-monthly survey conducted since 2001 by Victory Research, an independent polling company based in Chicago. The poll of 806 likely Chicago voters has a margin of error of 3.45% and was conducted by live callers. Respondents answered on land lines (271) and cell phones (535). www.illinoispoliticsblog.com. @ILpollster.
Geographically, Vallas’ lead is bolstered by virtue of a strong lead on the Northwest Side (31.2%) and a narrow lead on the Southwest Side over Congressman Garcia (29.5%-28.6%). The Mayor, whose strongest area of strength in 2019 was the north Lakefront, holds a slight lead there over Garcia (33.3%-31.6%). Willie Wilson, who won thirteen majority African-American wards in the 2019 Mayoral campaign, maintains strength on the South Side (26.2%) and the West Side (21.5%). Commissioner Johnson is the only Mayoral candidate in double digits in every geographic area.
Among racial groups, Willie Wilson leads among African-American voters (25.2%), Congressman Garcia among Latino voters (43.6%) and Vallas among White voters (36.8%).
The race remains very fluid, according to the poll. After choosing a Mayor candidate, respondents were asked if their “mind is made up” or “is there still a chance you could change your mind?” Fully half (50.2%) of voters who chose a candidate said they still could change their mind, including a majority of Johnson (58.4%), Vallas (57.3%) and Garcia (56.0%) voters. Among the top tier candidates, only a solid majority of Willie Wilson (64.9%) and Mayor Lightfoot (62.6%) voters said their minds were made up on their choice.